ATTACHED IS A STOCK ASSESSMENT SUMMARY UPDATE FOR THE NASS RIVER (PDF FORMAT)
FROM THE NISGA'A FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE DEPARTMENT OF NISGA'A LISIMS
GOVERNMENT.  SAYT-K'IL'IM-GOOT.

ALL DATA PRESENTED IN THIS
UPDATE ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH FURTHER ASSESSMENT INFORMATION
THAT BECOMES AVAILABLE AND SHOULD BE INTERPRETATED CAUTIOUSLY FOR IN-SEASON
ASSESSMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

NASS FISHWHEEL OPERATIONAL NOTES:

FISHWHEEL
ASSESSMENT DATA UP TO THURSDAY 28 AUGUST 2008. 

GW FISHWHEELS
(TEST FISHERY - 15TH YEAR):  FISHWHEELS 1 AND 2 WERE STARTED ON 5 JUNE FOR
TAGGING AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDEX ASSESSMENTS FOR SALMON AND STEELHEAD. 

 
FISHWHEELS 1 AND 2 ARE OPERATING AT A WATER LEVEL OF 2.4 M THAT IS
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR DATE.  AVERAGE WATER LEVEL FROM 1992 TO 2007 WAS 1.9
M FOR DATE.  NOTE THAT BOTH FISHWHEELS WERE SHUTDOWN ON 25 AUGUST FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME DUE TO HIGH WATER LEVELS REACHING AS HIGH AS 4.2 M.

 
ALL FISH CAUGHT IN THE GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEELS HAVE BEEN
RELEASED. 

GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS:  THREE FISHWHEELS OPERATE
AT GREASE HARBOUR FOR IN-SEASON MARK RECAPTURE TAG RECOVERIES.  THE FISHWHEEL
STARTUP DATES WERE: 11 JUNE (FW5), 12 JUNE (FW6) AND 13 JUNE (FW3). 

THREE FISHWHEELS ARE CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL.  NOTE THAT FW 6 WAS SHUTDOWN
FROM 24-27 AUGUST AND FW 3 FROM 25-26 AUGUST DUE TO HIGH WATER LEVELS.  BOTH
WERE RESTARTED ON 27 AUGUST. 
 
ALL FISH CAUGHT IN THE GREASE HARBOUR
FISHWHEELS HAVE BEEN RELEASED. 

SINCE ONLY THREE FISHWHEELS ARE
FISHING AT GREASE HARBOUR COMPARED TO FOUR SINCE 2000, TOTAL FISHWHEEL CATCHES
IN 2008 AS REPORTED BELOW WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY COMPARABLE WITH FISHWHEEL CATCH
AVERAGES FROM 2000 TO 2007.  CATCH AVERAGE COMPARISONS AT THE GW FISHWHEELS WILL
BE COMPARABLE AND ARE PROVIDED IN ATTACHMENT. 

NASS SOCKEYE
SALMON:
THE NASS SOCKEYE RUN SIZE ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE
(191,604) IS TRACKING BELOW AVERAGE (273,000) FOR DATE BASED ON A
MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 281,000 FROM 1994 TO 2007.  NOTE THAT
THE RUN SIZE IS SMALLER THAN THE LAST UPDATE DUE TO MARK-RATE ADJUSTMENTS FROM
DATA COLLECTED AT THE GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS.  THE RUN SIZE HAS LEVELLED OFF
OVER THE PAST WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE WATER LEVELS AND THE HIGH WATER SPIKE ON
25 AUGUST THAT SHUTDOWN THE FISHWHEELS FOR A PORTION OF A DAY.

THE RUN
SIZE ESTIMATE IS A COMBINATION OF MARK-RECAPTURE AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDICES
METHODS.  THE MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES WILL CHANGE OVER A 5-DAY PERIOD DUE TO
MARK RATES STABILIZING AT GREASE HARBOUR AS FISH TAGGED AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASS
THE UPSTREAM GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEEL SITES OVER A 5-DAY PERIOD.  AFTER THE MARK
RATE STABILIZES, THE DAILY ESTIMATE IS BETTER AT PREDICTING ACTUAL CATCH
EFFICIENCIES AT THE GW FISHWHEELS THAN THE HISTORICAL INDICES AND AN ADJUSTMENT
WILL BE MADE TO THE PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES. AS SUCH WE USE HISTORICAL CATCH
EFFICIENCIES DURING THE 5-D FLUCTUATING PERIOD WHILE MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES
ARE STABILIZING FOR LESS FLUCTUATING ESTIMATES THAT ARE REPORTED.  CURRENTLY,
MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES ARE FINAL TO 23 AUGUST AND LATER DATES WILL
FLUCTUATE FROM 24 AUGUST TO 2 SEPTEMBER AS ADDITIONAL CATCH AND TAG
RECOVERY DATA BECOME AVAILABLE FROM THE GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS.   A
SPREADSHEET OF THE CALCULATIONS AND RANGE OF ESTIMATES IS PROVIDED IN THE
ATTACHMENT.

THE RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS SOCKEYE TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS
~218,000 FOR 2008 BASED ON HARVESTS PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW. 
NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT APPROXIMATELY 98% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF
THE SOCKEYE RUN HAS PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE.  USING FINAL MARK-RECAPTURE
ESTIMATES TO 23 AUGUST, CURRENT FORECAST METHODS ARE PREDICTING THAT THE
FINAL RUN SIZE PROJECTION WILL NOT REACH THE TARGET WITH ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
197,000 (MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD - RANGE 194,000-201,000) TO
203,000 (IN-SEASON TO FINAL METHOD).    HOWEVER,  PRELIMINARY MARK
RECAPTURE DATA AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY SUGGEST THAT THE IN-SEASON RUN SIZE (AND
FORECAST) ESTIMATES AT GITWINKSIHLKW ARE CONSERVATIVE AND MAY BE ~10% HIGHER
(~20,000) ASSUMING A 18-D LAG AND 20% MARK LOSS RATE.  IN ADDITION, THE
MINIMUM ESCAPEMENT TARGET LEVEL HAS BEEN ACHIEVED FOR 2008 FOR NASS
SOCKEYE.
 
THE IN-SEASON NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR NASS SOCKEYE TO DATE
IS 174,584.  THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET IS 200,000 (160,000 TO
MEZIADIN RIVER AND 40,000 TO NON-MEZIADIN SYSTEMS).  

MEZIADIN FISHWAY
OPENED ON 1 JULY FOR ESCAPEMENT COUNTS TO RIVER.  TOTAL COUNTS OF SOCKEYE AT
MEZIADIN TO 28 AUGUST ARE:  128,837 ADULTS (4310 TAGS) AND 1574
JACKS.  THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT TO DATE IS BELOW AVERAGE
(138,000) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO
2007.  HOWEVER, HIGH WATER LEVELS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK HAVE SLOWED THE
DAILY COUNTS SUBSTANTIALLY.  THE AVERAGE COUNT OF ADULT SOCKEYE FROM 1994 TO
2007 WAS 170,000.  CURRENT FORECAST METHODS ARE PREDICTING THAT THE
ESCAPEMENT TARGET (160,000) MAY BE REACHED WITH RANGES FROM 154,000
(ADJUSTED FISHWHEEL MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD ASSUMING THE MAXIMUM MEZIADIN
STOCK PROPORTION (85%)) TO 156-160,000 (MEZIADIN MEAN RUN TIMING
AND IN-SEASON TO FINAL COUNT METHODS).  NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT
~83% OF THE MEZIADIN SOCKEYE RUN HAS REACHED THE FISHWAY TO DATE BASED ON
MEAN COUNTS FROM 1990 TO 2007.

NISGA'A FISHERIES IS USING A PRELIMINARY
TOTAL RETURN TO CANADA (TRTC) ESTIMATE FOR NASS SOCKEYE OF BETWEEN
~320,000 (IN-SEASON) AND 350,000 (PRE-SEASON) FOR TRACKING THE
NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS SOCKEYE THAT IS RANGING BETWEEN 45,000 AND
52,000.  TRTC RETURNS ARE INFLUENCED BY ALASKAN CATCHES WHICH ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR DATE BUT GILLNET AND SEINE FISHERIES CONTINUE TO
OCCUR IN DISTRICTS 101 TO 104.  THE 2008 TRTC RETURN WAS PROJECTED TO BE BELOW
AVERAGE (666,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007. 

THE
TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS SOCKEYE TO DATE IS 45,356.  THE
TOTAL INCLUDES FSC CATCH (27,628) TO WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST AND
INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH ESTIMATES TO DATE (17,728).  THE
ANNUAL TOTAL AVERAGE NISGA'A FSC HARVEST FROM 2000 TO 2007 OF NASS
SOCKEYE WAS 26,000.   THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM HAS NOW
ENDED FOR 2008.  SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO NISGA’A CATCH OF SOCKEYE WILL BE MADE IN
FUTURE UPDATES BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED INTO
SEPTEMBER.

NISGA'A FOOD FISH (FSC) HARVESTING IS OPEN FOR ALL
SPECIES.  GIVEN THAT THE TOTAL FSC AMOUNT WAS PROJECTED TO NOT EXCEED THE
TOTAL NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT ESTIMATE FOR 2008, THE REMAINING ENTITLEMENT (~20,000)
WAS AVAILABLE FOR SALE FISHERIES.  THE DIRECTOR OF NISGA'A FISHERIES AND
WILDLIFE OPENED THE NISGA'A MARINE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERY FOR HARVESTING NASS
SOCKEYE AS SALE FISHERIES FOR FOUR 48-HR OPENINGS FROM 16 JULY TO 1 AUGUST THAT
CAUGHT A TOTAL OF 17,728 SOCKEYE.   AS A RESULT OF THE CURRENT ASSESSMENTS OF
RUN SIZE AND NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS SOCKEYE, THE MARINE INDIVIDUAL SALE
FISHERY CLOSED FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2008.  IN-RIVER SALE FISHERIES DID NOT OPEN
FOR 2008 INCLUDING HARVESTING FROM THE FISHWHEELS.   ALL FISH WERE RELEASED FROM
THE FISHWHEELS.

FOUR NISGA'A INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERIES OCCURRED IN 2008
(16-17 JULY [17 BOATS]; 17-18 JULY [17 BOATS]; 23-25 JULY
[17 BOATS]; 30 JULY - 1 AUGUST [~21 BOATS]) IN AREA 3-12.  TOTAL CATCHES
IN THE NISGA'A MARINE SALE FISHERIES WERE:   17,728 SOCKEYE; 3,438 PINK; 793
COHO AND 276 CHUM.  

THE NISGA'A NATION PASSED A RESOLUTION AT THE
SPECIAL ASSEMBLY IN MAY 2008 RECOMMENDING THE CLOSURE OF THE GENERAL COMMERCIAL
FISHERY IN AREA 3-12 DUE TO PRE-SEASON CONSERVATION CONCERNS OF NASS SOCKEYE AND
CHINOOK.  DFO KEPT AREA 3-12 CLOSED TO 20 JULY DUE TO THE POOR RETURN OF
CHINOOK AND ENSURING GOOD ESCAPEMENT OF NASS SOCKEYE INTO THE RIVER AT THE
TIME.  DFO OPENED AREA 3-12 TO THE GENERAL COMMERCIAL FISHERY STARTING ON 21
JULY WITH THE MAJORITY OF NASS CHINOOK THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS AND THE
NASS SOCKEYE RUN TRACKING ON TARGET OF REACHING THE ESCAPEMENT GOAL AT THE
TIME.   AREA 3-12 HAS BEEN CLOSED SINCE 27 JULY AND THE REST OF AREA 3
SINCE 29 JULY.  A TOTAL OF 7633 SOCKEYE WERE CAUGHT IN AREA 3
BETWEEN 21 JULY AND 27 JULY.  DFO HAVE ANNOUNCED A GENERAL CLOSURE OF AREAS 3
TO 6 FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2008 TO SEINES AND GILLNETS.

AREA 3
FISHERIES CONDUCTED IN 2008 TO DATE HAVE BEEN 7 GILLNET [24 JUNE (170
BOATS), 1 JULY (209 BOATS), 7 JULY (174 BOATS), 14 JULY (179 BOATS), 15 JULY (5
BOATS), 21 JULY (16) AND 27 JULY (33)] AND 4 SEINE (14 JULY (13 BOATS),
15 JULY (5 BOATS), 21 JULY (13 BOATS) AND 29 JULY (7 BOATS)) FISHERIES.  TOTAL
COMMERCIAL HARVEST ESTIMATES IN AREA 3 TO 29 AUGUST ARE:  
37,501 SOCKEYE; 17,972 PINK; 14,135 CHUM AND 405 CHINOOK (SOURCE OF DATA
IS FROM DFO PRINCE RUPERT FISHERIES MANAGEMENT).  

ALASKAN GILLNET
FISHERIES IN DISTRICTS 101 (TREE POINT) AND 106 (SUMNER AND UPPER CLARENCE)
BEGAN ON 15 JUNE AND 8 JUNE, RESPECTIVELY.  ALASKAN SEINE
FISHERIES OPENING DATES WERE:   DISTRICTS 101 (LOWER CLARENCE/REVILLA;
OPENED ON 6 JULY), 102 (MIDDLE CLARENCE; OPENED ON 22
JUNE), 103 (CORDOVA; OPENED 24 JULY) AND 104
(NOYES/DALL; OPENED ON 6 JULY).  LATEST ALASKAN OPENINGS ARE:  GN (101
AND 106) - 31 AUGUST TO 3-4 SEPTEMBER; AND SN (101-104) – 30-31
AUGUST.

TOTAL IN-SEASON CATCH ESTIMATE OF SOCKEYE IN SOUTHEAST
ALASKAN FISHERIES IS 123,260 BASED ON DATA TO 28 AUGUST ON THE
ADFG WEBSITE AND IS INCOMPLETE CATCH REPORTING FOR WEEK 35 (ENDS 30
AUGUST).  REPORTED CATCHES ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TO DATE.  THE AVERAGE
CATCH OF SOCKEYE IN SOUTHEAST ALASKAN FISHERIES IS 714,000 SOCKEYE FROM
1999 TO 2007. 
 
OF THE TOTAL ALASKAN CATCH OF SOCKEYE, NISGA'A FISHERIES
IS ESTIMATING APPROXIMATELY ~35,000 ARE NASS SOCKEYE BASED ON AVERAGE
STOCK % DATA (1982-98) AND IS BELOW AVERAGE TO DATE.  AVERAGE CATCH OF NASS
SOCKEYE IS 165,000 FROM 1999 TO 2007.
 
NASS CHINOOK SALMON:
THE NASS CHINOOK RUN SIZE ESTIMATE
TO GITWINKSIHLKW (14,054) IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR DATE (22,500) BASED
ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 22,500 FROM 1994 TO 2007.  THE RUN
SIZE TARGET FOR NASS CHINOOK TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS 17,000 DEPENDING ON
HARVESTS PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW.  THE IN-SEASON TRACKING OF THE NASS
CHINOOK RUN TO GITWINKSIHLKW PREDICTED ~14,000 [MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD
AND IN-SEASON TO FINAL METHOD] AS THE FINAL IN-SEASON RUN SIZE TOTAL TO
GITWINKSIHLKW.  THE 2008 RETURN TO DATE IS THE THIRD WORST ON RECORD SINCE THE
START OF THE NISGA'A FISHERIES PROGRAM IN 1992.  NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING
THAT 100% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF THE RUN HAS PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE. 

 
THE IN-SEASON NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR NASS CHINOOK IS
12,844.  THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET FOR NASS CHINOOK ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR
IS 15,000.   A PRELIMINARY REVIEW OF MARK-RECAPTURE DATA AT MEZIADIN
FISHWAY IS INDICATING THAT IN-SEASON ESTIMATES MAY BE CONSERVATIVE AND FINAL
POST-SEASON ESTIMATES MAY BE HIGHER SUGGESTING A POSSIBILITY THAT THE ESCAPEMENT
TARGET MAY BE REACHED IN 2008.  NOTE THAT THE MINIMUM ESCAPEMENT TARGET FOR NASS
CHINOOK HAS BEEN ACHIEVED IN 2008.

TOTAL COUNTS OF CHINOOK AT MEZIADIN
FISHWAY TO 28 AUGUST ARE:  469 ADULTS (15 TAGS) AND 58 JACKS.  THE
2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT (469) TO DATE IS ABOVE AVERAGE (384)
BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007.  THE AVERAGE
COUNT OF ADULT CHINOOK AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS 480. THE
FISHWHEEL MEAN-RUN TIMING FORECAST IS PREDICTING 590 CHINOOK TO REACH THE
FISHWAY BASED ON CURRENT ESCAPEMENT PASSED GW AND ESTIMATED STOCK COMPOSITION
(4.7%).  OTHER FORECASTS RANGE BETWEEN 570 (IN-SEASON TO FINAL
MEZIADIN COUNT METHOD) AND 600 (MEZIADIN MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD). 
NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~78% OF THE MEZIADIN CHINOOK RUN HAS
PASSED THE FISHWAY TO DATE BASED ON MEAN COUNTS FROM 1990 TO 2007.  
MARK-RECAPTURE SURVEYS FOR FINAL ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATES ARE ALSO PLANNED AT
KWINAGEESE AND DAMDOCHAX RIVERS IN SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE KINCOLITH
VIDEO-COUNTING FENCE BEGAN OPERATION ON 11 JUNE FOR COLLECTING ESCAPEMENT DATA
FOR THE KINCOLITH RIVER AND PROVIDING AN INDEX OF ESCAPEMENT TO COASTAL STREAMS
IN AREA 3.  NET UPSTREAM COUNTS AT THE WEIR TO 26 AUGUST ARE:  844
CHINOOK (177 AFC AND 39 BROODSTOCK), 604 PINK, 33 COHO AND 12 CHUM. 
OTHER WEIR COUNTS TO DATE ARE: 12 STEELHEAD (8 DOWN AND 4 UP) AND 6
CUTTHROAT/RAINBOW TROUT (2 UP & 4 DOWN IN JULY; <50 CM AND SEA RUN; FINAL
ID CONFIRMED AT END OF SEASON).  THE CURRENT COUNT OF CHINOOK PASSING THE
WEIR (844) IS BELOW THE AVERAGE COUNT (1087) FOR THE DATE FROM
PAST OPERATIONS (2001, 2002, 2005-2007).  HOWEVER, NISGA'A FISHERIES PROJECTED
THAT THE ESCAPEMENT GOAL (700) WOULD BE REACHED IN 2008 BASED ON THE RUN
SIZE FORECAST METHOD WHICH IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATING ~875 (RANGE 900-1000)
FROM MEAN RUN TIMING FROM PAST OPERATIONS (2001, 2002, 2005-2007).  NISGA'A
FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~96% OF THE KINCOLITH CHINOOK RUN HAS PASSED
THE WEIR TO DATE BASED ON THE RECONSTRUCTED MEAN RUN TIMING.

NISGA'A
FISHERIES IS USING A PRELIMINARY TRTC ESTIMATE FOR NASS CHINOOK OF BETWEEN
20,500 (IN-SEASON) AND 21,000 (PRE-SEASON) FOR TRACKING THE
NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS CHINOOK.  THE 2008 TRTC ESTIMATES FORECASTED FOR A
BELOW AVERAGE RETURN (36,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007. 
UNCERTAINTY OF MARINE COMMERCIAL AND RECREATIONAL CATCHES OF NASS CHINOOK MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY ESTIMATE IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATES FOR NASS CHINOOK.
HOWEVER, BASED ON THE IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATES FOR 2008, THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT
OF NASS CHINOOK IS ~4000.  ALL OR A PORTION OF THE CUMULATIVE UNDERAGE OF
3300 FROM PAST YEAR'S MANAGEMENT UNCERTAINTY MAY BE NEEDED TO FULFILL
NISGA'A FSC NEEDS IN 2008 WHICH ON AVERAGE TOTALS 6200 NASS CHINOOK. 
DEPENDING ON FINAL FSC REQUIREMENTS, THE ENTITLEMENT TARGET IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000.

THE NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS CHINOOK
TO WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST IS 4338 (INCLUDING ANGLING HARVESTS ON
KINCOLITH RIVER) AND BELOW AVERAGE (00-07).  THE ANNUAL TOTAL AVERAGE
NISGA'A FSC HARVEST OF NASS CHINOOK FROM 2000 TO 2007 WAS 6200. 
THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM HAS NOW ENDED FOR 2008.  SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO NISGA’A CATCH OF CHINOOK WILL BE MADE IN FUTURE UPDATES BASED ON AVERAGE
CATCHES WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED INTO SEPTEMBER.  NO CHINOOK WERE PERMITTED
FOR SALE IN ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERIES THAT WERE CONDUCTED IN
2008.

NASS COHO SALMON:
THE NASS COHO RUN SIZE ESTIMATE TO
GITWINKSIHLKW (78,716) IS TRACKING ABOVE AVERAGE (59,000) FOR DATE
BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 76,000 FROM 1994 TO 2007. 
THE RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS COHO TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS ~50,000 DEPENDING
ON HARVESTS PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW AND DURING TYPICAL GITWINKSIHLKW
FISHWHEEL OPERATION (JUNE TO EARLY-MID SEPTEMBER).  NISGA'A FISHERIES IS
ESTIMATING THAT ~79% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF THE RUN HAS PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW
TO DATE BASED ON TYPICAL OPERATION OF FISHWHEELS.  THE RUN SIZE ESTIMATES ARE
CONSERVATIVE FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER NASS COHO STOCKS AS COHO CONTINUE TO PASS THE
FISHWHEELS AFTER OPERATIONS. 

THE RUN SIZE ESTIMATES ARE A COMBINATION
OF MARK-RECAPTURE AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDICES METHODS.  NOTE THAT MARK
RECAPTURE ESTIMATES WILL CHANGE OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD DUE TO MARK RATES
STABILIZING AT GREASE HARBOUR AS COHO TAGGED AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASS THE UPSTREAM
GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEEL SITES OVER THE 7-DAY PERIOD.  A SPREADSHEET OF THE
CALCULATIONS AND RANGE IN ESTIMATES IS PROVIDED IN THE ATTACHMENT.

THE
IN-SEASON NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR NASS COHO IS 78,170.  THE NET
ESCAPEMENT TARGET FOR NASS COHO ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR IS ~41,000 DURING
TYPICAL OPERATIONS OF THE GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEELS FROM JUNE TO FIRST OR SECOND
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.   THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET HAS BEEN ACHIEVED IN 2008 BASED
ON CURRENT IN-SEASON ESTIMATES.  CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATES OF ESCAPEMENT ARE
PREDICTING FROM 99,000 (IN-SEASON TO FINAL ESTIMATE METHOD) TO 98,000
(FISHWHEEL MEAN RUN TIMING; RANGE 85,000-111,000) TO REACH GITWINKSIHLKW.

TOTAL COUNTS OF COHO AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY TO 28 AUGUST ARE: 148
ADULTS (0 TAGS) AND 11 JACKS. THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT (148)
TO DATE IS CURRENTLY BELOW AVERAGE (387) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE
MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007.  THE AVERAGE COUNT OF ADULT COHO AT MEZIADIN
FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS 3600.

NISGA'A FISHERIES IS USING A
PRELIMINARY TRTC ESTIMATE FOR NASS COHO OF BETWEEN 104,000 (PRE-SEASON)
AND 181,000 (IN-SEASON) FOR TRACKING THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS COHO
THAT IS CURRENTLY RANGING BETWEEN 8,000 AND 14,500.  THE 2008
IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE IS CURRENTLY PROJECTING FOR AN AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE
RETURN (162,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007.

THE
TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS COHO TO DATE IS 2857.  THIS TOTAL
INCLUDES FSC CATCH (2064) TO WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL
MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH ESTIMATE TO DATE (793).  THE NISGA’A CATCH
MONITORING PROGRAM HAS NOW ENDED FOR 2008.  SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO NISGA’A CATCH
OF COHO WILL BE MADE IN FUTURE UPDATES BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES WHEN MONITORING
WAS CONDUCTED INTO SEPTEMBER.

NASS PINK SALMON:
THE
FISHWHEEL CATCH OF PINK SALMON (1632) TO DATE IS WELL BELOW THE MEAN
CATCH (15,000) FOR EVEN-YEAR RETURNS FROM 2000 TO 2007.

NISGA'A FISHERIES DOWNSIZED THE PRE-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE
(569,000) TO ~285,000 (~1/2 OF PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE) ON 15
AUGUST FOR NASS PINKS BASED ON DATA FROM DFO (POOR ABUNDANCES DETECTED IN
STREAM WALK SURVEYS IN AREA 3), BELOW AVERAGE NUMBERS AT THE FISHWHEELS AND
EXTREMELY LOW NUMBERS (604; FORECAST ~700 TO RETURN BASED ON 86% OF THE
RUN TO DATE) AT THE KINCOLITH WEIR (AVERAGE RETURN OF EVEN-YR PINKS IS
9,000).  AS A RESULT OF DOWNSIZING, THE NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS PINK
IS ~10,000 AND IS MUCH SMALLER THAN THE PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE
(54,000).  THE 2008 IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE IS FORECASTING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE (524,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS OF EVEN YEAR PINKS FROM 1994 TO
2007.  THE 2008 RETURN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST NASS AREA PINK SALMON
EVEN-YR RETURN (230,000) IN 2006. 
 
NOTE THAT PRE-SEASON AND
IN-SEASON FORECASTING OF NASS AREA PINKS ARE POORLY DEVELOPED FOR AREA 3
CURRENTLY.  NISGA’A FISHERIES IS DEVELOPING IN-SEASON METHODS WITH DFO FOR
BETTER PREDICTING MAGNITUDE OF RETURNS IN THE FUTURE BASED ON FISHWHEEL MEAN
CATCHES, KINCOLITH WEIR COUNTS AND ANY STREAM SURVEY INFORMATION THAT CAN BE
COLLECTED DURING THE SEASON TO AID IN MANAGING NASS AREA PINKS AND TRACKING THE
NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT. 
 
THE TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS PINK TO
DATE IS 4252. THIS TOTAL INCLUDES FSC CATCH (814) TO WEEK ENDING
23 AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH ESTIMATE TO DATE
(3438).  THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM HAS NOW ENDED FOR 2008. 
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO NISGA’A CATCH OF PINK WILL BE MADE IN FUTURE UPDATES BASED
ON AVERAGE CATCHES WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED INTO SEPTEMBER.

NASS
CHUM SALMON:
THE FISHWHEEL CATCH OF CHUM (31) TO DATE IS BELOW
THE MEAN CATCH (108) LEVEL FROM 2000-2007.

NISGA'A FISHERIES
DOWNSIZED THE PRE-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE (90,000) TO ~21,000 (LOW
RETURN ESTIMATE FROM 2007) ON 15 AUGUST FOR NASS AREA CHUMS BASED ON DATA
FROM DFO (POOR ABUNDANCES DETECTED IN STREAM WALK SURVEYS AT STAGOO CREEK),
BELOW AVERAGE NUMBERS AT THE FISHWHEELS AND EXTREMELY LOW NUMBERS THAT HAVE
PASSED THE KINCOLITH WEIR (<20 FISH) TO DATE.  AS A RESULT, THE NISGA’A
ENTITLEMENT OF NASS AREA CHUM HAS BEEN DOWNSIZED FROM 7000 (PRE-SEASON)
TO ~1680 (IN-SEASON).  THE 2008 IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE OF NASS CHUMS IS
FORECASTING WELL BELOW AVERAGE (91,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994
TO 2007.  PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT DATA COLLECTED TO DATE FROM STREAM SURVEYS
SUGGEST THAT THE MINIMUM ESCAPEMENT GOAL (30,000) MAY NOT BE REACHED FOR
NASS AREA CHUMS IN 2008.
 
NOTE THAT PRE-SEASON AND IN-SEASON FORECASTING
OF NASS AREA CHUMS ARE POORLY DEVELOPED FOR AREA 3.  NO RELIABLE METHODS ARE
CURRENTLY AVAILABLE TO ESTIMATE ESCAPEMENT DURING THE SEASON, TRACK THE STATUS
OF THE RUN OR THE NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT.
 
THE TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE
OF NASS CHUM TO DATE IS 489.  THE TOTAL INCLUDES FSC CATCH (213)
TO WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH
ESTIMATE TO DATE (276).  THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM HAS NOW
ENDED FOR 2008.  SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO NISGA’A CATCH OF CHUM WILL BE MADE IN
FUTURE UPDATES BASED ON AVERAGE CATCHES WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED INTO
SEPTEMBER.

NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD:
IN-SEASON RUN SIZE
ESTIMATES OR OTHER INFORMATION PRESENTED FOR NASS STEELHEAD ARE ONLY FOR SUMMER
RUNS (I.E., DO NOT INCLUDE ANY ESTIMATES FOR WINTER OR SPRING RUN STEELHEAD) AND
ONLY COVER RETURN INFORMATION FROM JUNE TO SEPTEMBER WHEN THE FISHWHEELS
TYPICALLY OPERATE.
 
THE FISHWHEEL CATCH OF STEELHEAD (489) TO
DATE IS BELOW AVERAGE (543) FROM 2000-2007 FISHWHEEL OPERATIONS. 
HOWEVER, ONLY FIVE FISHWHEELS ARE FISHING IN 2008 VERSUS SIX AND A GOOD PORTION
OF THE STEELHEAD CATCH OCCURS AT GREASE HARBOUR WHERE FOUR FISHWHEELS HAVE
TYPICALLY OPERATED.  HOWEVER, ABOVE AVERAGE CATCHES TO DATE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
IN THE PAST WEEK WHEN COMPARING GITWINKSIHLKW CUMULATIVE CATCHES BY PERIOD (SEE
ATTACHMENT).
 
THE NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD IN-SEASON RUN SIZE ESTIMATE
TO GITWINKSIHLKW (3771) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING BELOW AVERAGE (4328)
TO DATE BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 7800 DURING
FISHWHEEL OPERATIONS FROM 1994 TO 2007 (BASED ON PRELIMINARY HISTORICAL RUN SIZE
DATA).  HOWEVER, DURING TYPICAL GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEEL OPERATION, THE
PRELIMINARY RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS
4200 DEPENDING ON ANY LOSSES PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW. 

THE
IN-SEASON RUN SIZE ESTIMATE IS A COMBINATION OF MARK-RECAPTURE AND HISTORICAL
CATCH INDICES METHODS.  THE MARK-RECAPTURE ESTIMATE IS USING MARK RATES DERIVED
FROM THE COHO ASSESSMENT PROGRAM THAT ASSUMES SIMILAR CATCHABILITY BETWEEN COHO
AND STEELHEAD BASED ON SIMILAR RUN TIMING PATTERNS.  MARK-RATE SAMPLE SIZES ARE
MUCH LARGER AND MORE RELIABLE FOR COHO THAN USING STEELHEAD MARK RATE DATA. 
STEELHEAD RUN SIZE ESTIMATES WILL CHANGE OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD DUE TO COHO MARK
RATES STABILIZING AT GREASE HARBOUR AS TAGGED FISH AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASS THE
UPSTREAM GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEEL SITES OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD.  A SPREADSHEET OF
THE CALCULATIONS AND RANGE OF ESTIMATES IS PROVIDED IN THE
ATTACHMENT.

THE IN-SEASON NET RUN SIZE ESTIMATE ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR FOR
NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD IS 3737.  THE NET RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS
SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR IS ~4000 DURING TYPICAL
OPERATIONS OF THE GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEELS.  THE CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATE
(5600) IS PREDICTING A GOOD PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE ESCAPEMENT TARGET
(~4000) BASED ON THE IN-SEASON TO FINAL ESTIMATE REGRESSION METHOD.

TOTAL COUNTS OF STEELHEAD AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY TO DATE ARE: 0 ADULTS
(0 TAGS).  THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT (0) TO DATE IS BELOW THE
AVERAGE (1) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO
2007.  THE AVERAGE COUNT OF STEELHEAD DURING OPERATION OF MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM
1994 TO 2007 WAS 50.   STEELHEAD BEGIN PASSING THE FISHWAY IN LATE
AUGUST.

THE NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS STEELHEAD TO WEEK ENDING 23
AUGUST IS 124.  A TOTAL OF 26 STEELHEAD WERE ALSO RELEASED
ALIVE DURING THE MARINE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERIES CONDUCTED BETWEEN 16 JULY AND
1 AUGUST.  THE NISGA’A CATCH MONITORING PROGRAM HAS NOW ENDED FOR 2008.  SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO NISGA’A CATCH OF STEELHEAD WILL BE MADE IN FUTURE UPDATES BASED
ON AVERAGE CATCHES WHEN MONITORING WAS CONDUCTED INTO SEPTEMBER.  THE AVERAGE
HARVEST OF NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD IN NISGA'A FISHERIES IS 400 FROM
1994 TO 2007.

Richard Alexander, RPBio
Nisga'a Fisheries
Stock Assessment Management Biologist
Nisga'a Lisims Government - Fisheries
& Wildlife Department
P.O. Box 228, New Aiyansh, BC, V0J 1A0
Phone: 
(250) 633-2617
Fax:        (250) 633-2971