ATTACHED IS A STOCK ASSESSMENT SUMMARY UPDATE FOR THE NASS RIVER (PDF FORMAT)
FROM THE NISGA'A FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE DEPARTMENT OF NISGA'A LISIMS
GOVERNMENT.  SAYT-K'IL'IM-GOOT.

ALL DATA PRESENTED IN THIS
UPDATE ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH FURTHER ASSESSMENT INFORMATION
THAT BECOMES AVAILABLE AND SHOULD BE INTERPRETATED CAUTIOUSLY FOR IN-SEASON
ASSESSMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

NASS FISHWHEEL OPERATIONAL NOTES:

FISHWHEEL
ASSESSMENT DATA UP TO MONDAY 11 AUGUST 2008. 

GW FISHWHEELS
(TEST FISHERY - 15TH YEAR):  FISHWHEELS 1 AND 2 WERE STARTED ON 5 JUNE FOR
TAGGING AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDEX ASSESSMENTS FOR SALMON AND STEELHEAD. 
FISHWHEELS 1 AND 2 ARE OPERATING WELL AT AN AVERAGE WATER LEVEL FOR
DATE.  AVERAGE WATER LEVEL FROM 1992 TO 2007 WAS 1.9 M FOR
DATE.  ALL FISH THAT HAVE BEEN CAUGHT IN THE GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEELS WERE
RELEASED. 

GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS:  THREE FISHWHEELS WILL
OPERATE AT GREASE HARBOUR IN 2008 FOR IN-SEASON MARK RECAPTURE TAG RECOVERIES. 
THE FISHWHEEL STARTUP DATES WERE: 11 JUNE (FW5), 12 JUNE (FW6) AND 13 JUNE
(FW3).  ALL THREE FISHWHEELS ARE OPERATIONAL.  ALL FISH CAUGHT IN THE
GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS WERE RELEASED. 

SINCE ONLY THREE FISHWHEELS
ARE FISHING AT GREASE HARBOUR COMPARED TO FOUR SINCE 2000, TOTAL FISHWHEEL
CATCHES IN 2008 AS REPORTED BELOW WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY COMPARABLE WITH FISHWHEEL
CATCH AVERAGES FROM 2000 TO 2007.  CATCH AVERAGE COMPARISONS AT THE GW
FISHWHEELS WILL BE COMPARABLE AND ARE PROVIDED ONCE A WEEK AS WEEK ENDING
COMPARISONS. 

NASS SOCKEYE SALMON:
THE NASS SOCKEYE
RUN SIZE ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE (185,298) IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING BELOW AVERAGE (243,000) BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO
GITWINKSIHLKW OF 281,000 FROM 1994 TO 2007.  THE RUN SIZE HAS CONTINUED
TO RISE MODESTLY IN THE PAST WEEK.

THE RUN SIZE ESTIMATE IS A
COMBINATION OF MARK-RECAPTURE AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDICES METHODS.  NOTE THAT
MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES WILL CHANGE OVER A 5-DAY PERIOD DUE TO MARK RATES
STABILIZING AT GREASE HARBOUR AS FISH TAGGED AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASS THE UPSTREAM
GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEEL SITES OVER A 5-DAY PERIOD. AFTER THE MARK RATE
STABILIZES, THE DAILY ESTIMATE IS BETTER AT PREDICTING ACTUAL CATCH EFFICIENCIES
AT THE GW FISHWHEELS THAN THE HISTORICAL INDICES. AS SUCH WE WILL USE HISTORICAL
CATCH EFFICIENCIES DURING THE 5 D FLUCTUATING PERIOD WHILE MARK RECAPTURE
ESTIMATES ARE STABILIZING FOR LESS FLUCTUATING ESTIMATES THAT ARE REPORTED. 
CURRENTLY, MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES ARE FINAL TO 6 AUGUST AND LATER DATES
WILL FLUCTUATE FROM 7 AUGUST TO 16 AUGUST AS ADDITIONAL CATCH AND TAG
RECOVERY DATA BECOME AVAILABLE FROM THE GH FISHWHEELS.   A SPREADSHEET OF THE
CALCULATIONS AND RANGE OF ESTIMATES IS PROVIDED IN THE ATTACHMENT.

THE
RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS SOCKEYE TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS 225,000 TO 250,000
DEPENDING ON HARVESTS PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW.  NISGA'A FISHERIES IS
ESTIMATING THAT APPROXIMATELY 91% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF THE SOCKEYE RUN HAS
PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE.  USING FINAL MARK-RECAPTURE ESTIMATES TO 6
AUGUST, CURRENT FORECAST METHODS ARE PREDICTING A REASONABLE PROBABILITY OF
REACHING THE RUN SIZE TARGET TO GW (225,000) WITH ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
216,000 (MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD - RANGE 203,000-230,000) TO
227,000 (IN-SEASON TO FINAL METHOD). 
 
PRELIMINARY MARK RECAPTURE
DATA AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY SUGGEST THAT IN-SEASON RUN SIZE ESTIMATES AT
GITWINKSIHLKW MAY BE 5-10% HIGHER ASSUMING A 18-D LAG AND 20% MARK LOSS RATE. 
AS A RESULT, THE FISHWHEEL FORECAST ESTIMATES FOR NASS SOCKEYE WOULD BE 5-10%
HIGHER SUGGESTING A HIGHER PROBABILITY IN REACHING THE AGGREGATE AND MEZIADIN
ESCAPEMENT TARGETS.
 
THE NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR NASS SOCKEYE TO DATE
IS 171,685.  THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET IS 200,000 (160,000 TO
MEZIADIN RIVER AND 40,000 TO NON-MEZIADIN SYSTEMS).  

MEZIADIN FISHWAY
OPENED ON 1 JULY FOR ESCAPEMENT COUNTS TO RIVER.  TOTAL COUNTS OF SOCKEYE
AT MEZIADIN TO 11 AUGUST ARE:  113,826 ADULTS (3965 TAGS) AND 1010
JACKS.  THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT (113,826) TO DATE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE (95,800) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994
TO 2007.  THE AVERAGE COUNT OF ADULT SOCKEYE FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS
170,000.  CURRENT FORECAST METHODS ARE PREDICTING A REASONABLE
PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE ESCAPEMENT TARGET (160,000) WITH RANGES FROM
133,000 (UNADJUSTED FISHWHEEL MEAN RUN TIMING AND STOCK PROPORTION
METHOD; RANGE 107,000-163,000) TO 195,000 (MEAN MEZIADIN RUN TIMING). 
NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~58% OF THE MEZIADIN SOCKEYE RUN HAS
REACHED THE FISHWAY TO DATE BASED ON MEAN COUNTS FROM 1990 TO
2007.

NISGA'A FISHERIES IS USING A PRELIMINARY TOTAL RETURN TO CANADA
(TRTC) ESTIMATE FOR NASS SOCKEYE OF BETWEEN 330,000 (IN-SEASON) AND
350,000 (PRE-SEASON) FOR TRACKING THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS SOCKEYE
THAT IS RANGING BETWEEN 47,000 AND 52,000.  TRTC RETURNS ARE ALSO
INFLUENCED BY ALASKAN CATCHES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO DATE BUT
SEINE FISHERIES ARE CONTINUING TO OCCUR IN DISTRICTS 101 TO 104.  THE 2008 TRTC
RETURN WAS PROJECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE (666,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS
FROM 1994 TO 2007. 

THE TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS SOCKEYE TO
DATE IS 42,211.  THE TOTAL INCLUDES FSC CATCH (24,483) TO WEEK
ENDING 2 AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH ESTIMATES TO
DATE (17,728).  THE TOTAL CUMULATIVE AVERAGE NISGA'A FSC HARVEST
FOR THE SAME WEEK ENDING PERIOD OF NASS SOCKEYE FROM 2000 TO 2007 WAS
23,000.  THE ANNUAL TOTAL AVERAGE NISGA'A FSC HARVEST FROM 2000 TO
2007 OF NASS SOCKEYE WAS 26,000.   THE NEXT NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE
FOR WEEK ENDING 9 AUGUST WILL BE UPDATED ON WEDNESDAY, 13 AUGUST.

NISGA'A FOOD FISH (FSC) HARVESTING IS OPEN FOR ALL SPECIES AND IS
ANTICIPATED TO REACH  BETWEEN 26,000 AND 30,000 SOCKEYE IN 2008.  GIVEN THAT
TOTAL FSC AMOUNT IS PROJECTED TO NOT EXCEED THE TOTAL NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT
ESTIMATE FOR 2008, THE REMAINING ENTITLEMENT (~20,000) WAS AVAILABLE FOR SALE
FISHERIES.  THE DIRECTOR OF NISGA'A FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE OPENED THE NISGA'A
MARINE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERY FOR HARVESTING NASS SOCKEYE AS SALE FISHERIES FOR
FOUR 48-HR OPENINGS FROM 16 JULY TO 1 AUGUST.   AS A RESULT OF THE CURRENT
ASSESSMENTS OF RUN SIZE AND NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS SOCKEYE, THE MARINE SALE
FISHERY IS CLOSED FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2008.  IN-RIVER SALE FISHERIES DID NOT
OPEN FOR 2008 INCLUDING HARVESTING FROM THE FISHWHEELS.   ALL FISH WERE RELEASED
FROM THE FISHWHEELS.

FOUR NISGA'A INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERIES OCCURRED
IN 2008 (16-17 JULY [17 BOATS]; 17-18 JULY [17 BOATS]; 23-25
JULY [17 BOATS]; 30 JULY - 1 AUGUST [~21 BOATS]) IN AREA 3-12.  TOTAL
CATCHES IN THE NISGA'A MARINE SALE FISHERIES WERE:   17,728 SOCKEYE; 3,438
PINK; 793 COHO AND 276 CHUM.  

THE NISGA'A NATION PASSED A
RESOLUTION AT THE SPECIAL ASSEMBLY IN MAY 2008 RECOMMENDING THE CLOSURE OF THE
GENERAL COMMERCIAL FISHERY IN AREA 3-12 DUE TO PRE-SEASON CONSERVATION CONCERNS
OF NASS SOCKEYE AND CHINOOK.  DFO KEPT AREA 3-12 CLOSED TO 20 JULY DUE TO
THE POOR RETURN OF CHINOOK AND ENSURING GOOD ESCAPEMENT OF NASS SOCKEYE INTO THE
RIVER.  DFO OPENED AREA 3-12 TO THE GENERAL COMMERCIAL FISHERY STARTING ON 21
JULY WITH THE MAJORITY OF NASS CHINOOK THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS AND THE
NASS SOCKEYE RUN CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO REACH THE ESCAPEMENT GOAL.   AREA 3-12
HAS BEEN CLOSED SINCE 27 JULY AND THE REST OF AREA 3 SINCE 29
JULY.  DFO HAVE ANNOUNCED A GENERAL CLOSURE OF AREAS 3 TO 6 PENDING
FURTHER ASSESSMENTS.

AREA 3 FISHERIES CONDUCTED IN 2008 TO DATE HAVE
BEEN 7 GILLNET [24 JUNE (170 BOATS), 1 JULY (209 BOATS), 7 JULY (174
BOATS), 14 JULY (179 BOATS), 15 JULY (5 BOATS), 21 JULY (16) AND 27 JULY (33)]
AND 4 SEINE (14 JULY (13 BOATS), 15 JULY (5 BOATS), 21 JULY (13 BOATS)
AND 29 JULY (? BOATS)) FISHERIES.  TOTAL COMMERCIAL HARVEST ESTIMATES IN AREA
3 TO 8 AUGUST ARE:   36,892 SOCKEYE; 13,642 PINK; 14,135 CHUM AND
405 CHINOOK (SOURCE OF DATA IS FROM DFO PRINCE RUPERT FISHERIES
MANAGEMENT).  

ALASKA GILLNET FISHERIES IN DISTRICTS 101 (TREE POINT)
AND 106 (SUMNER AND UPPER CLARENCE) BEGAN ON 15 JUNE AND 8 JUNE,
RESPECTIVELY.  ALASKAN SEINE FISHERIES OPENING DATES WERE:   DISTRICTS
101 (LOWER CLARENCE/REVILLA; OPENED ON 6 JULY), 102 (MIDDLE
CLARENCE; OPENED ON 22 JUNE), 103 (CORDOVA; OPENED 24 JULY)
AND 104 (NOYES/DALL; OPENED ON 6 JULY).  

TOTAL IN-SEASON
CATCH ESTIMATE OF SOCKEYE IN SOUTHEAST ALASKAN FISHERIES IS 92,063 BASED
ON DATA TO 12 AUGUST ON THE ADFG WEBSITE AND IS INCOMPLETE CATCH
REPORTING FOR WEEK 33 (ENDS 16 AUGUST).  REPORTED CATCHES ARE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TO DATE.  THE AVERAGE CATCH OF SOCKEYE IN SOUTHEAST ALASKAN FISHERIES IS
714,000 SOCKEYE FROM 1999 TO 2007.

OF THE TOTAL ALASKAN CATCH
OF SOCKEYE, NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING APPROXIMATELY 32,000 ARE NASS
SOCKEYE BASED ON AVERAGE STOCK % DATA (1982-98) AND IS BELOW AVERAGE TO DATE. 
AVERAGE CATCH OF NASS SOCKEYE IS 165,000 FROM 1999 TO 2007.

NASS CHINOOK SALMON:
THE NASS CHINOOK RUN SIZE
ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW (13,859) IS TRACKING BELOW AVERAGE TO DATE
(22,000) BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 22,000 FROM
1994 TO 2007.  THE RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS CHINOOK TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS
17,000 DEPENDING ON HARVESTS PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW.  THE
IN-SEASON TRACKING OF THE NASS CHINOOK RUN TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS PREDICTING
14,000 [MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD AND IN-SEASON TO FINAL METHOD] AS THE
FINAL IN-SEASON RUN SIZE TOTAL TO GITWINKSIHLKW.  THE 2008 RETURN TO DATE IS THE
THIRD WORST ON RECORD SINCE THE START OF THE NISGA'A FISHERIES PROGRAM IN 1992. 
NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT 98% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF THE RUN HAS
PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE.  THE NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR NASS CHINOOK IS
12,667.  THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET FOR NASS CHINOOK ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR
IS 15,000.   A PRELIMINARY REVIEW OF MARK-RECAPTURE DATA AT MEZIADIN
FISHWAY IS INDICATING THAT IN-SEASON ESTIMATES MAY BE HIGHER SUGGESTING A
REASONABLE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ESCAPEMENT TARGET WILL BE REACHED IN POST-SEASON
FINAL ESTIMATES.

TOTAL COUNTS OF CHINOOK AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY TO 11
AUGUST ARE:  396 ADULTS (9 TAGS) AND 48 JACKS.  THE 2008 CUMULATIVE
ADULT COUNT (396) TO DATE IS ABOVE AVERAGE (265) BASED ON MEAN
COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007.  THE AVERAGE COUNT OF ADULT
CHINOOK AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS 480. THE FISHWHEEL
MEAN-RUN TIMING FORECAST IS PREDICTING 590 CHINOOK (RANGE: 580-600) TO
REACH THE FISHWAY BASED ON CURRENT ESCAPEMENT PASSED GW AND ESTIMATED STOCK
COMPOSITION (4.7%).  OTHER FORECASTS RANGE BETWEEN 610 (IN-SEASON
TO FINAL MEZIADIN COUNT METHOD) AND 690 (MEZIADIN MEAN RUN TIMING
METHOD).  NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~57% OF THE MEZIADIN
CHINOOK RUN HAS PASSED THE FISHWAY TO DATE BASED ON MEAN COUNTS FROM 1990 TO
2007.   MARK-RECAPTURE SURVEYS FOR FINAL ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATES ARE ALSO PLANNED
AT KWINAGEESE AND DAMDOCHAX RIVERS IN SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE KINCOLITH
VIDEO-COUNTING FENCE BEGAN OPERATION ON 11 JUNE FOR COLLECTING ESCAPEMENT
DATA FOR THE KINCOLITH RIVER AND PROVIDING AN INDEX OF ESCAPEMENT TO COASTAL
STREAMS IN AREA 3.  NET UPSTREAM COUNTS AT THE WEIR TO 8 AUGUST ARE: 
830 CHINOOK (172 AFC AND 39 BROODSTOCK), 307 PINK, 15 COHO AND 7
CHUM.  OTHER WEIR COUNTS TO DATE ARE: 15 STEELHEAD (8 DOWN AND 7 UP) AND
1 CUTTHROAT (1 UP).  THE CURRENT COUNT OF CHINOOK PASSING THE WEIR IS NOW
BELOW THE AVERAGE COUNT (860) FOR THE DATE FROM PAST OPERATIONS (2001,
2002, 2005-2007).  NISGA'A FISHERIES PROJECTED THAT THE ESCAPEMENT GOAL
(700) WOULD BE REACHED IN 2008 BASED ON THE RUN SIZE FORECAST METHOD
WHICH IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATING ~1,100 (RANGE 900-1200) FROM MEAN RUN
TIMING FROM PAST OPERATIONS (2001, 2002, 2005-2007).  NISGA'A FISHERIES IS
ESTIMATING THAT ~76% OF THE KINCOLITH CHINOOK RUN HAS PASSED THE WEIR TO
DATE BASED ON THE RECONSTRUCTED MEAN RUN TIMING.

NISGA'A FISHERIES IS
USING A PRELIMINARY TRTC ESTIMATE FOR NASS CHINOOK OF BETWEEN 20,000
(IN-SEASON) AND 21,000 (PRE-SEASON) FOR TRACKING THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT
OF NASS CHINOOK.  THE 2008 TRTC ESTIMATES ARE FORECASTING FOR A BELOW AVERAGE
RETURN (36,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007.  UNCERTAINTY OF
MARINE COMMERCIAL AND RECREATIONAL CATCHES OF NASS CHINOOK MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
ACCURATELY ESTIMATE IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATES FOR NASS CHINOOK. HOWEVER, BASED ON
THE IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATES FOR 2008, THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS CHINOOK
IS ~4,000.  A CUMULATIVE UNDERAGE OF 3300 FROM PAST YEAR'S
MANAGEMENT UNCERTAINTY MAY BE NEEDED TO FULFILL NISGA'A FSC NEEDS IN 2008 WHICH
ON AVERAGE TOTAL 6200 NASS CHINOOK.  AS A RESULT OF FSC REQUIREMENTS, THE
ENTITLEMENT TARGET IS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4000 AND 7300
DEPENDING ON IN-SEASON RUN SIZE ESTIMATES DURING THE SEASON.

THE NISGA'A
CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS CHINOOK TO WEEK ENDING 2 AUGUST IS 4187 AND
BELOW AVERAGE (00-07).  THE TOTAL CUMULATIVE AVERAGE NISGA'A FSC HARVEST
OF NASS CHINOOK FROM 2000 TO 2007 FOR THE SAME WEEK ENDING PERIOD WAS
6050.  THE ANNUAL TOTAL AVERAGE NISGA'A FSC HARVEST OF NASS
CHINOOK FROM 2000 TO 2007 WAS 6200.  THE NEXT NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE FOR
WEEK ENDING 9 AUGUST WILL BE UPDATED ON WEDNESDAY, 13 AUGUST.   NO
CHINOOK WERE PERMITTED FOR SALE IN ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERIES THAT
WERE CONDUCTED IN 2008.

NASS COHO SALMON:
THE NASS COHO RUN
SIZE ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW (31,278) IS TRACKING ABOVE AVERAGE
(22,000) TO DATE BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF
76,000 FROM 1994 TO 2007.  THE RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS COHO TO
GITWINKSIHLKW IS ~50,000 DEPENDING ON HARVESTS PROJECTED ABOVE
GITWINKSIHLKW AND DURING TYPICAL GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEEL OPERATION (JUNE TO
EARLY-MID SEPTEMBER).  NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~28% (93-07
MEDIAN) OF THE RUN HAS PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE BASED ON TYPICAL OPERATION
OF FISHWHEELS FROM JUNE TO EARLY-MID SEPTEMBER. 

THE RUN SIZE ESTIMATE
IS A COMBINATION OF MARK-RECAPTURE AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDICES METHODS.  NOTE
THAT MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES WILL CHANGE OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD DUE TO MARK RATES
STABILIZING AT GREASE HARBOUR AS COHO TAGGED AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASS THE UPSTREAM
GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEEL SITES OVER THE 7-DAY PERIOD.  A SPREADSHEET OF THE
CALCULATIONS AND RANGE IN ESTIMATES IS PROVIDED IN THE ATTACHMENT.

THE
NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR NASS COHO IS 31,257.  THE NET ESCAPEMENT
TARGET FOR NASS COHO ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR IS ~41,000 DURING TYPICAL
OPERATIONS OF THE GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEELS FROM JUNE TO FIRST OR SECOND WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER.   CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATES ARE PREDICTING A GOOD PROBABILITY OF
REACHING THE ESCAPEMENT TARGET WITH RANGES FROM 103,000 (IN-SEASON TO
FINAL ESTIMATE METHOD) TO 108,000 (FISHWHEEL MEAN RUN TIMING; RANGE
63,000-153,000) BUT IT IS EARLY INTO THE RUN.

TOTAL COUNTS OF COHO AT
MEZIADIN FISHWAY TO 11 AUGUST ARE: 27 ADULTS (0 TAGS) AND 0 JACKS.
THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT (27) TO DATE IS ABOVE THE AVERAGE
(9) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007.  THE
AVERAGE COUNT OF ADULT COHO AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS
3600.

NISGA'A FISHERIES IS USING A PRELIMINARY TRTC ESTIMATE FOR
NASS COHO OF BETWEEN 104,000 (PRE-SEASON) AND 188,000 (IN-SEASON -
EARLY INTO RUN) FOR TRACKING THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS COHO THAT IS
CURRENTLY RANGING BETWEEN 8,000 AND 15,000.  THE 2008 IN-SEASON
TRTC ESTIMATE (188,000) IS CURRENTLY PROJECTING FOR AN ABOVE AVERAGE
RETURN (162,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007.

THE
TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS COHO TO DATE IS 986.  THIS TOTAL
INCLUDES FSC CATCH (193) TO WEEK ENDING 2 AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL
MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH ESTIMATE TO DATE (793).  THE NEXT NISGA'A FSC
CATCH ESTIMATE FOR WEEK ENDING 9 AUGUST WILL BE UPDATED ON WEDNESDAY,
13 AUGUST.

NASS PINK SALMON:
THE FISHWHEEL CATCH OF
PINK SALMON (934) TO DATE IS WELL BELOW THE MEAN CATCH (9800) FOR
EVEN-YEAR RETURNS FROM 2000 TO 2007.   MOST OF THE CATCH OF PINK SALMON IS AT
THE GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEELS WITH THE MAJORITY OF STOCKS LOCATED BELOW GREASE
HARBOUR.

NISGA'A FISHERIES IS CURRENTLY USING THE PRE-SEASON TRTC
ESTIMATE FOR NASS PINKS OF 569,000 FOR TRACKING THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT
(54,000) OF NASS PINK. THE 2008 TRTC ESTIMATE IS FORECASTING ABOVE
AVERAGE (524,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS OF EVEN YEAR PINKS FROM 1994 TO
2007.  HOWEVER, THE LAST NASS PINK SALMON EVEN RETURN YEAR (2006) WAS EXTREMELY
LOW (230,000) AND COMMERCIAL CATCHES OF PINK WERE POOR.  THERE ARE
CURRENTLY NO IN-SEASON METHODS AVAILABLE TO PREDICT CURRENT TRTC
STATUS.

THE TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS PINK TO DATE IS
3676. THIS TOTAL INCLUDES FSC CATCH (238) TO WEEK ENDING 2
AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH ESTIMATE TO DATE
(3438).  THE NEXT NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE FOR WEEK ENDING 9 AUGUST
WILL BE UPDATED ON WEDNESDAY, 13 AUGUST.

NASS CHUM
SALMON:
THE FISHWHEEL CATCH OF CHUM (22) TO DATE IS BELOW THE
MEAN CATCH (50) LEVEL FROM 2000-2007.

NISGA'A FISHERIES IS
CURRENTLY USING THE PRE-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE FOR NASS CHUM OF 90,000 FOR
TRACKING THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT (7,000) OF NASS CHUM.  THE 2008 TRTC
ESTIMATE IS FORECASTING AN AVERAGE (91,000) RETURN BASED ON TRTC RETURNS
FROM 1994 TO 2007.  THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO IN-SEASON METHODS AVAILABLE TO
PREDICT CURRENT TRTC STATUS.

THE TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS
CHUM TO DATE IS 349.  THE TOTAL INCLUDES FSC CATCH (73) TO WEEK
ENDING 2 AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH ESTIMATE TO DATE
(276).  THE NEXT NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE FOR WEEK ENDING 9 AUGUST
WILL BE UPDATED ON WEDNESDAY, 13 AUGUST.

NASS SUMMER-RUN
STEELHEAD:
THE FISHWHEEL CATCH OF STEELHEAD (187) TO DATE IS
NOW BELOW AVERAGE (195) FROM 2000-2007 OPERATIONS.  HOWEVER, ONLY FIVE
FISHWHEELS ARE FISHING IN 2008 VERSUS SIX AND MOST OF THE STEELHEAD CATCH OCCURS
AT GREASE HARBOUR WHERE FOUR FISHWHEELS HAVE TYPICALLY OPERATED.
 
THE
NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD RUN SIZE ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW (1529) IS
TRACKING ABOVE AVERAGE (1775) TO DATE BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO
GITWINKSIHLKW OF 7,800 DURING FISHWHEEL OPERATIONS FROM 1994 TO 2007
(BASED ON PRELIMINARY HISTORICAL RUN SIZE DATA).  DURING TYPICAL GITWINKSIHLKW
FISHWHEEL OPERATION (JUNE TO EARLY TO MID SEPTEMBER), THE PRELIMINARY RUN SIZE
TARGET FOR NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS 4,200 DEPENDING
ON ANY LOSSES PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW. 

THE RUN SIZE ESTIMATE IS A
COMBINATION OF MARK-RECAPTURE AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDICES METHODS.  THE
MARK-RECAPTURE ESTIMATE IS USING MARK RATES DERIVED FROM THE COHO ASSESSMENT
PROGRAM THAT ASSUMES SIMILAR CATCHABILITY BETWEEN COHO AND STEELHEAD BASED ON
SIMILAR RUN TIMING PATTERNS.  MARK-RATE SAMPLE SIZES ARE MUCH LARGER AND MORE
RELIABLE FOR COHO THAN USING STEELHEAD MARK RATE DATA.  STEELHEAD RUN SIZE
ESTIMATES WILL CHANGE OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD DUE TO COHO MARK RATES STABILIZING AT
GREASE HARBOUR AS TAGGED FISH AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASS THE UPSTREAM GREASE HARBOUR
FISHWHEEL SITES OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD.  A SPREADSHEET OF THE CALCULATIONS AND
RANGE OF ESTIMATES IS PROVIDED IN THE ATTACHMENT.

THE NET RUN SIZE
ESTIMATE ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR FOR NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD IS 1514.  THE
NET RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR IS
~4,000 DURING TYPICAL OPERATIONS OF THE GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEELS FROM
JUNE TO FIRST OR SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST ESTIMATE
(5,800) IS PREDICTING A REASONABLE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE ESCAPEMENT
TARGET (~4000) BASED ON THE IN-SEASON TO FINAL ESTIMATE REGRESSION
METHOD.

TOTAL COUNTS OF STEELHEAD AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY TO DATE ARE: 0
ADULTS (0 TAGS).  THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT (0) TO DATE IS THE
SAME AS THE AVERAGE (0) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM
1994 TO 2007.  THE AVERAGE COUNT OF STEELHEAD DURING OPERATION OF MEZIADIN
FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS 50.   STEELHEAD BEGIN PASSING THE FISHWAY
IN LATE AUGUST.

THE NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS STEELHEAD TO WEEK
ENDING 2 AUGUST IS 58.  STEELHEAD WERE ALSO RELEASED ALIVE DURING
THE MARINE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERIES CONDUCTED BETWEEN 16 JULY AND 1 AUGUST. 
NISGA'A FISHERIES WILL REPORT THE NUMBER OF STEELHEAD THAT WERE RELEASED IN THE
NEXT CATCH ESTIMATE UPDATE.  THE NEXT NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE FOR WEEK ENDING
9 AUGUST WILL BE UPDATED ON WEDNESDAY, 13 AUGUST.  THE AVERAGE
HARVEST OF NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD IN NISGA'A FISHERIES IS 400 FROM
1994 TO 2007.

Richard Alexander, RPBio
Nisga'a Fisheries
Stock Assessment Management Biologist
Nisga'a Lisims Government - Fisheries
& Wildlife Department
P.O. Box 228, New Aiyansh, BC, V0J 1A0
Phone: 
(250) 633-2617
Fax:        (250) 633-2971