ATTACHED IS A STOCK ASSESSMENT SUMMARY UPDATE FOR THE NASS RIVER (PDF FORMAT)
FROM THE NISGA'A FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE DEPARTMENT OF NISGA'A LISIMS
GOVERNMENT.  SAYT-K'IL'IM-GOOT.

ALL DATA PRESENTED IN THIS
UPDATE ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH FURTHER ASSESSMENT INFORMATION
THAT BECOMES AVAILABLE AND SHOULD BE INTERPRETATED CAUTIOUSLY FOR IN-SEASON
ASSESSMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

NASS FISHWHEEL OPERATIONAL NOTES:

FISHWHEEL
ASSESSMENT DATA UP TO THURSDAY 21 AUGUST 2008. 

GW FISHWHEELS
(TEST FISHERY - 15TH YEAR):  FISHWHEELS 1 AND 2 WERE STARTED ON 5 JUNE FOR
TAGGING AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDEX ASSESSMENTS FOR SALMON AND STEELHEAD. 
FISHWHEELS 1 AND 2 ARE OPERATING AT A WATER LEVEL OF 2.4 M THAT IS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR DATE.  AVERAGE WATER LEVEL FROM 1992 TO 2007 WAS 1.7 M
FOR DATE. 
 
ALL FISH THAT HAVE BEEN CAUGHT IN THE GITWINKSIHLKW
FISHWHEELS HAVE BEEN RELEASED. 

GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS:  THREE
FISHWHEELS OPERATE AT GREASE HARBOUR FOR IN-SEASON MARK RECAPTURE TAG
RECOVERIES.  THE FISHWHEEL STARTUP DATES WERE: 11 JUNE (FW5), 12 JUNE (FW6) AND
13 JUNE (FW3).  THREE FISHWHEELS ARE CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL.  FW 6 WAS
SHUTDOWN OVERNIGHT ON 14 AUGUST AND RE-STARTED ON 18 AUGUST DUE TO HIGH WATER
LEVELS. 
 
ALL FISH CAUGHT IN THE GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS HAVE BEEN
RELEASED. 

SINCE ONLY THREE FISHWHEELS ARE FISHING AT GREASE HARBOUR
COMPARED TO FOUR SINCE 2000, TOTAL FISHWHEEL CATCHES IN 2008 AS REPORTED BELOW
WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY COMPARABLE WITH FISHWHEEL CATCH AVERAGES FROM 2000 TO
2007.  CATCH AVERAGE COMPARISONS AT THE GW FISHWHEELS WILL BE COMPARABLE AND ARE
INCLUDED IN THE ATTACHMENT. 

NASS SOCKEYE SALMON:
THE
NASS SOCKEYE RUN SIZE ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE (192,011) IS
TRACKING BELOW AVERAGE (266,000) FOR DATE BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO
GITWINKSIHLKW OF 281,000 FROM 1994 TO 2007.  THE RUN SIZE HAS CONTINUED
TO RISE GRADUALLY IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FISH PASSING
GITWINKSIHLKW EACH DAY.

THE RUN SIZE ESTIMATE IS A COMBINATION OF
MARK-RECAPTURE AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDICES METHODS.  NOTE THAT MARK RECAPTURE
ESTIMATES WILL CHANGE OVER A 5-DAY PERIOD DUE TO MARK RATES STABILIZING AT
GREASE HARBOUR AS FISH TAGGED AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASS THE UPSTREAM GREASE HARBOUR
FISHWHEEL SITES OVER A 5-DAY PERIOD. AFTER THE MARK RATE STABILIZES, THE DAILY
ESTIMATE IS BETTER AT PREDICTING ACTUAL CATCH EFFICIENCIES AT THE GW FISHWHEELS
THAN THE HISTORICAL INDICES AND AN ADJUSTMENT CAN BE MADE TO THE PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATES. AS SUCH WE USE HISTORICAL CATCH EFFICIENCIES DURING THE 5-D
FLUCTUATING PERIOD WHILE MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES ARE STABILIZING FOR LESS
FLUCTUATING ESTIMATES THAT ARE REPORTED.  CURRENTLY, MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES
ARE FINAL TO 16 AUGUST AND LATER DATES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM 17 AUGUST
TO 26 AUGUST AS ADDITIONAL CATCH AND TAG RECOVERY DATA BECOME AVAILABLE FROM
THE GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEELS.   A SPREADSHEET OF THE CALCULATIONS AND RANGE OF
ESTIMATES IS PROVIDED IN THE ATTACHMENT.

THE RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS
SOCKEYE TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS ~225,000 FOR 2008 BASED ON HARVESTS PROJECTED
ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW.  NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT APPROXIMATELY
95% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF THE SOCKEYE RUN HAS PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE. 
USING FINAL MARK-RECAPTURE ESTIMATES TO 16 AUGUST, CURRENT FORECAST
METHODS ARE PREDICTING THAT THE FINAL RUN SIZE PROJECTION WILL NOT REACH TARGET
WITH ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 202,000 (MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD - RANGE
195,000-208,000) TO 210,000 (IN-SEASON TO FINAL METHOD).  HOWEVER, 
PRELIMINARY MARK RECAPTURE DATA AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY SUGGEST THAT THE IN-SEASON
RUN SIZE ESTIMATES AT GITWINKSIHLKW ARE CONSERVATIVE AND MAY BE ~10% HIGHER
(~20,000) ASSUMING A 18-D LAG AND 20% MARK LOSS RATE.  AS A RESULT, THE
FISHWHEEL FORECAST ESTIMATES FOR NASS SOCKEYE WOULD BE ~10% HIGHER SUGGESTING A
HIGHER PROBABILITY IN REACHING THE AGGREGATE AND MEZIADIN ESCAPEMENT
TARGETS.
 
THE IN-SEASON NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR NASS SOCKEYE TO DATE
IS 175,257.  THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET IS 200,000 (160,000 TO
MEZIADIN RIVER AND 40,000 TO NON-MEZIADIN SYSTEMS).  

MEZIADIN FISHWAY
OPENED ON 1 JULY FOR ESCAPEMENT COUNTS TO RIVER.  TOTAL COUNTS OF SOCKEYE AT
MEZIADIN TO 21 AUGUST ARE:  125,107 ADULTS (4247 TAGS) AND 1418
JACKS.  THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT TO DATE IS JUST ABOVE AVERAGE
(121,000) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO
2007.  THE AVERAGE COUNT OF ADULT SOCKEYE FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS 170,000. 
CURRENT FORECAST METHODS ARE PREDICTING A REASONABLE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE
ESCAPEMENT TARGET (160,000) WITH RANGES FROM 156,000 (ADJUSTED
FISHWHEEL MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD ASSUMING THE MAXIMUM MEZIADIN STOCK PROPORTION
(85%); RANGE 102,000-146,000) TO 172,000 (MEZIADIN MEAN RUN TIMING
METHOD).  NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~73% OF THE MEZIADIN
SOCKEYE RUN HAS REACHED THE FISHWAY TO DATE BASED ON MEAN COUNTS FROM 1990 TO
2007.

NISGA'A FISHERIES IS USING A PRELIMINARY TOTAL RETURN TO CANADA
(TRTC) ESTIMATE FOR NASS SOCKEYE OF BETWEEN ~330,000 (IN-SEASON) AND
350,000 (PRE-SEASON) FOR TRACKING THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS SOCKEYE
THAT IS RANGING BETWEEN 47,000 AND 52,000.  TRTC RETURNS ARE
INFLUENCED BY ALASKAN CATCHES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR DATE BUT
GILLNET AND SEINE FISHERIES ARE CONTINUING TO OCCUR IN DISTRICTS 101 TO 104. 
THE 2008 TRTC RETURN WAS PROJECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE (666,000) BASED ON
TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007. 

THE TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF
NASS SOCKEYE TO DATE IS 45,288.  THE TOTAL INCLUDES FSC CATCH
(27,560) TO WEEK ENDING 16 AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE
FISHERY CATCH ESTIMATES TO DATE (17,728).  THE ANNUAL TOTAL AVERAGE
NISGA'A FSC HARVEST FROM 2000 TO 2007 OF NASS SOCKEYE WAS
26,000.   THE NEXT NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE FOR WEEK ENDING 23
AUGUST WILL BE THE FINAL MONITORED CATCH PERIOD AND ESTIMATES WILL BE
UPDATED ON WEDNESDAY, 27 AUGUST. 

NISGA'A FOOD FISH (FSC)
HARVESTING IS OPEN FOR ALL SPECIES.  GIVEN THAT THE TOTAL FSC AMOUNT WAS
PROJECTED TO NOT EXCEED THE TOTAL NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT ESTIMATE FOR 2008, THE
REMAINING ENTITLEMENT (~20,000) WAS AVAILABLE FOR SALE FISHERIES.  THE DIRECTOR
OF NISGA'A FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE OPENED THE NISGA'A MARINE INDIVIDUAL SALE
FISHERY FOR HARVESTING NASS SOCKEYE AS SALE FISHERIES FOR FOUR 48-HR OPENINGS
FROM 16 JULY TO 1 AUGUST THAT CAUGHT A TOTAL OF 17,728 SOCKEYE.   AS A RESULT OF
THE CURRENT ASSESSMENTS OF RUN SIZE AND NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS SOCKEYE, THE
MARINE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERY IS CLOSED FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2008.  IN-RIVER
SALE FISHERIES DID NOT OPEN FOR 2008 INCLUDING HARVESTING FROM THE FISHWHEELS.  
ALL FISH WERE RELEASED FROM THE FISHWHEELS.

FOUR NISGA'A INDIVIDUAL SALE
FISHERIES OCCURRED IN 2008 (16-17 JULY [17 BOATS]; 17-18 JULY [17
BOATS]; 23-25 JULY [17 BOATS]; 30 JULY - 1 AUGUST [~21 BOATS]) IN
AREA 3-12.  TOTAL CATCHES IN THE NISGA'A MARINE SALE FISHERIES WERE:   17,728
SOCKEYE; 3,438 PINK; 793 COHO AND 276 CHUM.  

THE NISGA'A NATION
PASSED A RESOLUTION AT THE SPECIAL ASSEMBLY IN MAY 2008 RECOMMENDING THE CLOSURE
OF THE GENERAL COMMERCIAL FISHERY IN AREA 3-12 DUE TO PRE-SEASON CONSERVATION
CONCERNS OF NASS SOCKEYE AND CHINOOK.  DFO KEPT AREA 3-12 CLOSED TO 20
JULY DUE TO THE POOR RETURN OF CHINOOK AND ENSURING GOOD ESCAPEMENT OF NASS
SOCKEYE INTO THE RIVER AT THE TIME.  DFO OPENED AREA 3-12 TO THE GENERAL
COMMERCIAL FISHERY STARTING ON 21 JULY WITH THE MAJORITY OF NASS CHINOOK
THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS AND THE NASS SOCKEYE RUN CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO REACH
THE ESCAPEMENT GOAL AT THE TIME.   AREA 3-12 HAS BEEN CLOSED SINCE 27
JULY AND THE REST OF AREA 3 SINCE 29 JULY.  DFO HAVE ANNOUNCED A
GENERAL CLOSURE OF AREAS 3 TO 6 FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2008 TO SEINES AND
GILLNETS.

AREA 3 FISHERIES CONDUCTED IN 2008 TO DATE HAVE BEEN 7
GILLNET [24 JUNE (170 BOATS), 1 JULY (209 BOATS), 7 JULY (174 BOATS), 14
JULY (179 BOATS), 15 JULY (5 BOATS), 21 JULY (16) AND 27 JULY (33)] AND 4
SEINE (14 JULY (13 BOATS), 15 JULY (5 BOATS), 21 JULY (13 BOATS) AND 29 JULY
(7 BOATS)) FISHERIES.  TOTAL COMMERCIAL HARVEST ESTIMATES IN AREA 3 TO
22 AUGUST ARE:   37,501 SOCKEYE; 17,972 PINK; 14,135 CHUM AND 405
CHINOOK (SOURCE OF DATA IS FROM DFO PRINCE RUPERT FISHERIES MANAGEMENT).  

ALASKAN GILLNET FISHERIES IN DISTRICTS 101 (TREE POINT) AND 106 (SUMNER
AND UPPER CLARENCE) BEGAN ON 15 JUNE AND 8 JUNE, RESPECTIVELY. 
ALASKAN SEINE FISHERIES OPENING DATES WERE:   DISTRICTS 101 (LOWER
CLARENCE/REVILLA; OPENED ON 6 JULY), 102 (MIDDLE CLARENCE; OPENED
ON 22 JUNE), 103 (CORDOVA; OPENED 24 JULY) AND 104
(NOYES/DALL; OPENED ON 6 JULY).  LATEST OPENINGS ARE:  GN (101 AND 106) -
24-28 AUGUST AND SN (101-104) – 22-23 AUGUST.

TOTAL IN-SEASON CATCH
ESTIMATE OF SOCKEYE IN SOUTHEAST ALASKAN FISHERIES IS 115,053 BASED ON
DATA TO 22 AUGUST ON THE ADFG WEBSITE AND IS INCOMPLETE CATCH
REPORTING FOR WEEK 34 (ENDS 23 AUGUST).  REPORTED CATCHES ARE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TO DATE.  THE AVERAGE CATCH OF SOCKEYE IN SOUTHEAST ALASKAN FISHERIES IS
714,000 SOCKEYE FROM 1999 TO 2007. 
 
OF THE TOTAL ALASKAN CATCH
OF SOCKEYE, NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING APPROXIMATELY ~34,000 ARE
NASS SOCKEYE BASED ON AVERAGE STOCK % DATA (1982-98) AND IS BELOW AVERAGE TO
DATE.  AVERAGE CATCH OF NASS SOCKEYE IS 165,000 FROM 1999 TO
2007.
 
NASS CHINOOK SALMON:
THE NASS CHINOOK RUN SIZE ESTIMATE
TO GITWINKSIHLKW (13,955) IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR DATE (22,000) BASED
ON A MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 22,000 FROM 1994 TO 2007.  THE RUN
SIZE TARGET FOR NASS CHINOOK TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS 17,000 DEPENDING ON
HARVESTS PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW.  THE IN-SEASON TRACKING OF THE NASS
CHINOOK RUN TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS PREDICTING ~14,000 [MEAN RUN TIMING
METHOD AND IN-SEASON TO FINAL METHOD] AS THE FINAL IN-SEASON RUN SIZE TOTAL TO
GITWINKSIHLKW.  THE 2008 RETURN TO DATE IS THE THIRD WORST ON RECORD SINCE THE
START OF THE NISGA'A FISHERIES PROGRAM IN 1992.  NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING
THAT 99% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF THE RUN HAS PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE. 

 
THE IN-SEASON NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR NASS CHINOOK IS
12,747.  THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET FOR NASS CHINOOK ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR
IS 15,000.   A PRELIMINARY REVIEW OF MARK-RECAPTURE DATA AT MEZIADIN
FISHWAY IS INDICATING THAT IN-SEASON ESTIMATES MAY BE CONSERVATIVE AND FINAL
POST-SEASON ESTIMATES MAY BE HIGHER SUGGESTING A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
ESCAPEMENT TARGET MAY BE REACHED IN 2008.

TOTAL COUNTS OF CHINOOK AT
MEZIADIN FISHWAY TO 21 AUGUST ARE:  449 ADULTS (14 TAGS) AND 56
JACKS.  THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT (449) TO DATE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE (331) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO
2007.  THE AVERAGE COUNT OF ADULT CHINOOK AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007
WAS 480. THE FISHWHEEL MEAN-RUN TIMING FORECAST IS PREDICTING 590
CHINOOK (RANGE: 580-600) TO REACH THE FISHWAY BASED ON CURRENT ESCAPEMENT PASSED
GW AND ESTIMATED STOCK COMPOSITION (4.7%).  OTHER FORECASTS RANGE BETWEEN
590 (IN-SEASON TO FINAL MEZIADIN COUNT METHOD) AND 630 (MEZIADIN
MEAN RUN TIMING METHOD).  NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~71% OF
THE MEZIADIN CHINOOK RUN HAS PASSED THE FISHWAY TO DATE BASED ON MEAN COUNTS
FROM 1990 TO 2007.   MARK-RECAPTURE SURVEYS FOR FINAL ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATES ARE
ALSO PLANNED AT KWINAGEESE AND DAMDOCHAX RIVERS IN SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE
KINCOLITH VIDEO-COUNTING FENCE BEGAN OPERATION ON 11 JUNE FOR COLLECTING
ESCAPEMENT DATA FOR THE KINCOLITH RIVER AND PROVIDING AN INDEX OF ESCAPEMENT TO
COASTAL STREAMS IN AREA 3.  NET UPSTREAM COUNTS AT THE WEIR TO 16 AUGUST
ARE:  844 CHINOOK (177 AFC AND 39 BROODSTOCK), 529 PINK, 26 COHO AND
12 CHUM.  OTHER WEIR COUNTS TO DATE ARE: 12 STEELHEAD (8 DOWN AND 4 UP)
AND 6 CUTTHROAT/RAINBOW TROUT (2 UP & 4 DOWN IN JULY; <50 CM AND SEA RUN;
FINAL ID CONFIRMED AT END OF SEASON).  THE CURRENT COUNT OF CHINOOK PASSING
THE WEIR (844) IS BELOW THE AVERAGE COUNT (979) FOR THE DATE FROM
PAST OPERATIONS (2001, 2002, 2005-2007).  HOWEVER, NISGA'A FISHERIES PROJECTED
THAT THE ESCAPEMENT GOAL (700) WOULD BE REACHED IN 2008 BASED ON THE RUN
SIZE FORECAST METHOD WHICH IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATING ~975 (RANGE 900-1000)
FROM MEAN RUN TIMING FROM PAST OPERATIONS (2001, 2002, 2005-2007).  NISGA'A
FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT ~87% OF THE KINCOLITH CHINOOK RUN HAS PASSED
THE WEIR TO DATE BASED ON THE RECONSTRUCTED MEAN RUN TIMING.

NISGA'A
FISHERIES IS USING A PRELIMINARY TRTC ESTIMATE FOR NASS CHINOOK OF BETWEEN
20,000 (IN-SEASON) AND 21,000 (PRE-SEASON) FOR TRACKING THE
NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS CHINOOK.  THE 2008 TRTC ESTIMATES ARE FORECASTING
FOR A BELOW AVERAGE RETURN (36,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO
2007.  UNCERTAINTY OF MARINE COMMERCIAL AND RECREATIONAL CATCHES OF NASS CHINOOK
MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY ESTIMATE IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATES FOR NASS
CHINOOK. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATES FOR 2008, THE NISGA'A
ENTITLEMENT OF NASS CHINOOK IS ~4000.  ALL OR A PORTION OF THE CUMULATIVE
UNDERAGE OF 3300 FROM PAST YEAR'S MANAGEMENT UNCERTAINTY MAY BE NEEDED TO
FULFILL NISGA'A FSC NEEDS IN 2008 WHICH ON AVERAGE TOTALS 6200 NASS
CHINOOK.  DEPENDING ON FINAL FSC REQUIREMENTS, THE ENTITLEMENT TARGET IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4000 AND 7300.

THE NISGA'A CATCH
ESTIMATE OF NASS CHINOOK TO WEEK ENDING 16 AUGUST IS 4248 (INCLUDING
ANGLING HARVESTS ON KINCOLITH RIVER) AND BELOW AVERAGE (00-07).  THE ANNUAL
TOTAL AVERAGE NISGA'A FSC HARVEST OF NASS CHINOOK FROM 2000 TO 2007 WAS
6200.  THE NEXT NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE FOR WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST
WILL BE THE FINAL MONITORED CATCH PERIOD AND ESTIMATES WILL BE UPDATED ON
WEDNESDAY, 27 AUGUST.   NO CHINOOK WERE PERMITTED FOR SALE IN ANY OF THE
INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERIES THAT WERE CONDUCTED IN 2008.

NASS COHO
SALMON:
THE NASS COHO RUN SIZE ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW
(58,061) IS TRACKING ABOVE AVERAGE (48,000) FOR DATE BASED ON A
MEAN RUN SIZE TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 76,000 FROM 1994 TO 2007.  THE RUN SIZE
TARGET FOR NASS COHO TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS ~50,000 DEPENDING ON HARVESTS
PROJECTED ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW AND DURING TYPICAL GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEEL
OPERATION (JUNE TO EARLY-MID SEPTEMBER).  NISGA'A FISHERIES IS ESTIMATING THAT
~66% (93-07 MEDIAN) OF THE RUN HAS PASSED GITWINKSIHLKW TO DATE BASED ON
TYPICAL OPERATION OF FISHWHEELS.  THE RUN SIZE ESTIMATES ARE CONSERVATIVE FOR
MIDDLE TO UPPER NASS COHO STOCKS AS COHO CONTINUE TO PASS THE FISHWHEELS AFTER
OPERATIONS. 

THE RUN SIZE ESTIMATES ARE A COMBINATION OF MARK-RECAPTURE
AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDICES METHODS.  NOTE THAT MARK RECAPTURE ESTIMATES WILL
CHANGE OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD DUE TO MARK RATES STABILIZING AT GREASE HARBOUR AS
COHO TAGGED AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASS THE UPSTREAM GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEEL SITES
OVER THE 7-DAY PERIOD.  A SPREADSHEET OF THE CALCULATIONS AND RANGE IN ESTIMATES
IS PROVIDED IN THE ATTACHMENT.

THE IN-SEASON NET ESCAPEMENT ESTIMATE FOR
NASS COHO IS 57,528.  THE NET ESCAPEMENT TARGET FOR NASS COHO ABOVE
GREASE HARBOUR IS ~41,000 DURING TYPICAL OPERATIONS OF THE GITWINKSIHLKW
FISHWHEELS FROM JUNE TO FIRST OR SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.   THE NET ESCAPEMENT
TARGET HAS BEEN ACHIEVED IN 2008 BASED ON CURRENT IN-SEASON ESTIMATES.  CURRENT
FORECAST ESTIMATES OF ESCAPEMENT ARE PREDICTING FROM 90,000 (IN-SEASON TO
FINAL ESTIMATE METHOD) TO 92,000 (FISHWHEEL MEAN RUN TIMING; RANGE
71,000-113,000) TO REACH GITWINKSIHLKW.

TOTAL COUNTS OF COHO AT MEZIADIN
FISHWAY TO 21 AUGUST ARE: 86 ADULTS (0 TAGS) AND 7 JACKS. THE 2008
CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT (86) TO DATE IS CURRENTLY BELOW AVERAGE
(130) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007. 
THE AVERAGE COUNT OF ADULT COHO AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS
3600.

NISGA'A FISHERIES IS USING A PRELIMINARY TRTC ESTIMATE FOR
NASS COHO OF BETWEEN 104,000 (PRE-SEASON) AND 164,000 (IN-SEASON)
FOR TRACKING THE NISGA'A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS COHO THAT IS CURRENTLY RANGING
BETWEEN 8,000 AND 13,000.  THE 2008 IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE IS
CURRENTLY PROJECTING FOR AN AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE RETURN (162,000)
BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007.

THE TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH
ESTIMATE OF NASS COHO TO DATE IS 1971.  THIS TOTAL INCLUDES FSC CATCH
(1178) TO WEEK ENDING 16 AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY
CATCH ESTIMATE TO DATE (793).  THE NEXT NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE FOR WEEK
ENDING 23 AUGUST WILL BE THE FINAL MONITORED CATCH PERIOD AND ESTIMATES
WILL BE UPDATED ON WEDNESDAY, 27 AUGUST.

NASS PINK
SALMON:
THE FISHWHEEL CATCH OF PINK SALMON (1353) TO DATE IS
WELL BELOW THE MEAN CATCH (14,000) FOR EVEN-YEAR RETURNS FROM 2000
TO 2007.

NISGA'A FISHERIES DOWNSIZED THE PRE-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE
(569,000) TO ~285,000 (~1/2 OF PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE) ON 15
AUGUST FOR NASS PINKS BASED ON DATA FROM DFO (POOR ABUNDANCES DETECTED IN
STREAM WALK SURVEYS IN AREA 3), BELOW AVERAGE NUMBERS AT THE FISHWHEELS AND
EXTREMELY LOW NUMBERS (<600; FORECAST ~1,200 TO RETURN BASED ON 45% OF
THE RUN TO DATE) AT THE KINCOLITH WEIR (AVERAGE RETURN OF EVEN-YR PINKS IS
9,000).  AS A RESULT OF DOWNSIZING, THE NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS PINK
IS ~10,000 AND IS MUCH SMALLER THAN THE PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE
(54,000).  THE 2008 IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE IS FORECASTING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE (524,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS OF EVEN YEAR PINKS FROM 1994 TO
2007.  THE 2008 RETURN APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST NASS AREA PINK SALMON
EVEN-YR RETURN (230,000) IN 2006. 
 
NOTE THAT PRE-SEASON AND
IN-SEASON FORECASTING OF NASS AREA PINKS ARE POORLY DEVELOPED FOR AREA 3
CURRENTLY.  NISGA’A FISHERIES IS DEVELOPING IN-SEASON METHODS WITH DFO FOR
BETTER PREDICTING MAGNITUDE OF RETURNS IN THE FUTURE BASED ON FISHWHEEL MEAN
CATCHES, KINCOLITH WEIR COUNTS AND ANY STREAM SURVEY INFORMATION THAT CAN BE
COLLECTED DURING THE SEASON TO AID IN MANAGING NASS AREA PINKS AND TRACKING THE
NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT. 
 
THE TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS PINK TO
DATE IS 4088. THIS TOTAL INCLUDES FSC CATCH (650) TO WEEK ENDING
16 AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH ESTIMATE TO DATE
(3438).  THE NEXT NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE FOR WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST
WILL BE THE FINAL MONITORED CATCH PERIOD AND ESTIMATES WILL BE UPDATED ON
WEDNESDAY, 27 AUGUST.

NASS CHUM SALMON:
THE
FISHWHEEL CATCH OF CHUM (25) TO DATE IS BELOW THE MEAN CATCH (75)
LEVEL FROM 2000-2007.

NISGA'A FISHERIES DOWNSIZED THE PRE-SEASON TRTC
ESTIMATE (90,000) TO ~21,000 (LOW RETURN ESTIMATE FROM 2007) ON
15 AUGUST FOR NASS AREA CHUMS BASED ON DATA FROM DFO (POOR ABUNDANCES
DETECTED IN STREAM WALK SURVEYS AT STAGOO CREEK), BELOW AVERAGE NUMBERS AT THE
FISHWHEELS AND EXTREMELY LOW NUMBERS THAT HAVE PASSED THE KINCOLITH WEIR (<20
FISH) TO DATE.  AS A RESULT, THE NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT OF NASS AREA CHUM HAS BEEN
DOWNSIZED FROM 7000 (PRE-SEASON) TO ~1680 (IN-SEASON).  THE 2008
IN-SEASON TRTC ESTIMATE OF NASS CHUMS IS FORECASTING WELL BELOW AVERAGE
(91,000) BASED ON TRTC RETURNS FROM 1994 TO 2007.  PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT
DATA COLLECTED TO DATE FROM STREAM SURVEYS SUGGEST THAT THE MINIMUM ESCAPEMENT
GOAL (30,000) MAY NOT BE REACHED FOR NASS AREA CHUMS IN
2008.
 
NOTE THAT PRE-SEASON AND IN-SEASON FORECASTING OF NASS AREA CHUMS
ARE POORLY DEVELOPED FOR AREA 3.  NO RELIABLE METHODS ARE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE TO
ESTIMATE ESCAPEMENT DURING THE SEASON, TRACK THE STATUS OF THE RUN OR THE
NISGA’A ENTITLEMENT.
 
THE TOTAL NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS CHUM TO
DATE IS 398.  THE TOTAL INCLUDES FSC CATCH (122) TO WEEK ENDING
16 AUGUST AND INDIVIDUAL MARINE SALE FISHERY CATCH ESTIMATE TO DATE
(276).  THE NEXT NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE FOR WEEK ENDING 23 AUGUST
WILL BE THE FINAL MONITORED CATCH PERIOD AND ESTIMATES WILL BE UPDATED ON
WEDNESDAY, 27 AUGUST.

NASS SUMMER-RUN
STEELHEAD:
IN-SEASON RUN SIZE ESTIMATES OR OTHER INFORMATION
PRESENTED FOR NASS STEELHEAD ARE ONLY FOR SUMMER RUNS (I.E., DO NOT INCLUDE ANY
ESTIMATES FOR WINTER OR SPRING RUN STEELHEAD) AND ONLY COVER RETURN INFORMATION
FROM JUNE TO SEPTEMBER WHEN THE FISHWHEELS TYPICALLY OPERATE.
 
THE
FISHWHEEL CATCH OF STEELHEAD (322) TO DATE IS BELOW AVERAGE (400)
FROM 2000-2007 FISHWHEEL OPERATIONS.  HOWEVER, ONLY FIVE FISHWHEELS ARE FISHING
IN 2008 VERSUS SIX AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE STEELHEAD CATCH OCCURS AT GREASE
HARBOUR WHERE FOUR FISHWHEELS HAVE TYPICALLY OPERATED.  HOWEVER, THIS BELOW
AVERAGE CATCH TREND TO DATE IS ALSO EVIDENT WHEN COMPARING GITWINKSIHLKW
CUMULATIVE CATCHES BY PERIOD (SEE ATTACHMENT).
 
THE NASS SUMMER-RUN
STEELHEAD IN-SEASON RUN SIZE ESTIMATE TO GITWINKSIHLKW (2522) IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING BELOW AVERAGE (3300) TO DATE BASED ON A MEAN RUN SIZE
TO GITWINKSIHLKW OF 7800 DURING FISHWHEEL OPERATIONS FROM 1994 TO 2007
(BASED ON PRELIMINARY HISTORICAL RUN SIZE DATA).  DURING TYPICAL GITWINKSIHLKW
FISHWHEEL OPERATION, THE PRELIMINARY RUN SIZE TARGET FOR NASS SUMMER-RUN
STEELHEAD TO GITWINKSIHLKW IS 4200 DEPENDING ON ANY LOSSES PROJECTED
ABOVE GITWINKSIHLKW. 

THE IN-SEASON RUN SIZE ESTIMATE IS A COMBINATION
OF MARK-RECAPTURE AND HISTORICAL CATCH INDICES METHODS.  THE MARK-RECAPTURE
ESTIMATE IS USING MARK RATES DERIVED FROM THE COHO ASSESSMENT PROGRAM THAT
ASSUMES SIMILAR CATCHABILITY BETWEEN COHO AND STEELHEAD BASED ON SIMILAR RUN
TIMING PATTERNS.  MARK-RATE SAMPLE SIZES ARE MUCH LARGER AND MORE RELIABLE FOR
COHO THAN USING STEELHEAD MARK RATE DATA.  STEELHEAD RUN SIZE ESTIMATES WILL
CHANGE OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD DUE TO COHO MARK RATES STABILIZING AT GREASE HARBOUR
AS TAGGED FISH AT GITWINKSIHLKW PASS THE UPSTREAM GREASE HARBOUR FISHWHEEL SITES
OVER A 7-DAY PERIOD.  A SPREADSHEET OF THE CALCULATIONS AND RANGE OF ESTIMATES
IS PROVIDED IN THE ATTACHMENT.

THE IN-SEASON NET RUN SIZE ESTIMATE ABOVE
GREASE HARBOUR FOR NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD IS 2488.  THE NET RUN SIZE
TARGET FOR NASS SUMMER-RUN STEELHEAD ABOVE GREASE HARBOUR IS ~4000 DURING
TYPICAL OPERATIONS OF THE GITWINKSIHLKW FISHWHEELS.  THE CURRENT FORECAST
ESTIMATE (5100) IS PREDICTING A REASONABLE PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE
ESCAPEMENT TARGET (~4000) BASED ON THE IN-SEASON TO FINAL ESTIMATE
REGRESSION METHOD.

TOTAL COUNTS OF STEELHEAD AT MEZIADIN FISHWAY TO DATE
ARE: 0 ADULTS (0 TAGS).  THE 2008 CUMULATIVE ADULT COUNT (0) TO
DATE IS THE SAME AS THE AVERAGE (0) BASED ON MEAN COUNTS AT THE MEZIADIN
FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007.  THE AVERAGE COUNT OF STEELHEAD DURING OPERATION OF
MEZIADIN FISHWAY FROM 1994 TO 2007 WAS 50.   STEELHEAD BEGIN PASSING THE
FISHWAY IN LATE AUGUST.

THE NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE OF NASS STEELHEAD TO
WEEK ENDING 16 AUGUST IS 121.  A TOTAL OF 26 STEELHEAD WERE
ALSO RELEASED ALIVE DURING THE MARINE INDIVIDUAL SALE FISHERIES CONDUCTED
BETWEEN 16 JULY AND 1 AUGUST.  THE NEXT NISGA'A CATCH ESTIMATE FOR WEEK ENDING
23 AUGUST WILL BE THE FINAL MONITORED CATCH PERIOD AND ESTIMATES WILL BE
UPDATED ON WEDNESDAY, 27 AUGUST.  THE AVERAGE HARVEST OF NASS SUMMER-RUN
STEELHEAD IN NISGA'A FISHERIES IS 400 FROM 1994 TO 2007.

Richard
Alexander, RPBio
Nisga'a Fisheries Stock Assessment Management
Biologist
Nisga'a Lisims Government - Fisheries & Wildlife
Department
P.O. Box 228, New Aiyansh, BC, V0J 1A0
Phone:  (250)
633-2617
Fax:        (250) 633-2971